Full-Stack Engineer - Forecast Coherence & World Models

Metaculus (www.metaculus.com) is the premier public forecasting platform, with over 1,000,000 forecasts on over 6,000 questions. Metaculus is "epistemic infrastructure", like Wikipedia and Our World In Data, providing the world with trusted, accurate information on a variety of questions, particularly in science and technology. Our mission is to enable everyone to model, understand, predict, and navigate the world's most important and complex challenges.

As a Full-Stack Engineer focused on Forecast Coherence & World Models, you'll pioneer the development of systems that make complex forecasting relationships and underlying world models transparent and accessible. You'll work at the intersection of software engineering and epistemics, building tools that help forecasters create more coherent predictions and make their reasoning legible to both experts and non-experts alike.

This role involves designing and implementing features that elicit, aggregate, and display the relationships between forecasts—from causal connections to necessary conditions—while leveraging AI to assist in world model construction and identify missing variables that could improve forecast quality.

Responsibilities

• Design and implement features for eliciting, aggregating and visualising coherence rules across forecasts, including causal/correlational relationships, martingale processes, necessary/sufficient conditions, etc.
• Develop intuitive interfaces that make complex forecast relationships and world models accessible to non-experts
• Build AI-powered tools for world model elicitation and legibilization, including autonomous coherence rule detection and latent variable suggestion systems
• Integrate new capabilities into the main Metaculus platform and potentially build stand-alone tools for specialised use cases
• Ensure high code quality, performance, and reliability across all implementations

Our Tech Stack

• Frontend: JavaScript, TypeScript, React, Next.js, D3, Tailwind CSS
• Backend: Python, Django, PostgreSQL, Redis, Sentry, Heroku, AWS
• Collaboration: GitHub, Slack, Notion, Jira, Figma

• Full-Stack Engineering: experience with both frontend and backend development, strong proficiency in Python and JavaScript/TypeScript
• Clean Code Practices: Commitment to writing maintainable, testable, and well-documented code
• User-Centric Development: Experience building intuitive interfaces for data visualization and interaction
• Problem Solving: Strong analytical skills with the ability to tackle ambiguous problems in novel domains
• Communication: Excellent written and verbal communication skills, essential for remote collaboration
• Mission Alignment: Genuine interest in improving humanity's ability to predict and navigate complex challenges

Bonus Qualifications

• Experience with Django and Next.js frameworks
• Background in statistics, probability theory, or causal inference
• Familiarity with directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and graphical models
• Experience with forecasting platforms or prediction markets
• Knowledge of AI/ML integration, particularly for natural language processing and knowledge extraction
• Experience building data visualization tools for complex relationships
• Background in epistemics, decision theory, or related fields

Metaculus offers competitive compensation packages and is supported by a committed coalition of funding partners.

In addition to the salary range listed above:

• We reimburse employees for health insurance costs, depending on country. In the US, we reimburse up to the legal maximum under a QSEHRA plan
• In the US, we offer a 401k plan for employees
• We provide generous parental leave
• As applicable, we provide relocation support and compensation adjustments when employees move to higher cost-of-living areas
• We offer travel opportunities for regular in-person working sessions and team retreats in the US and Europe
• We encourage our employees to meaningfully engage with and attend technical conferences and community events
• We are an equal opportunity employer that understands and appreciates the benefits of a diverse workforce